Tipping Points
Our alarm system for specific parts of our Earth system.
What are Tipping Points?
Tipping points are the thresholds for dangerous and unstable change in major parts of our Earth system, known as tipping elements. These elements include our planet’s ice masses, circulation systems, and specific ecosystems. Where Planetary Boundaries show us a “global system status”, tipping elements are specific parts of our Earth system.
Why are Tipping Points important?
Tipping points are our alarm system for irreversible changes to major parts of our Earth system. Crossing tipping points will lead to unprecedented and irreversible damage to our societies and our planet at a global scale. This includes significant sea level rise devastating major coastal cities, dieback of major forests including the Amazon, and disruption of natural rainfall cycles.
These major features of our natural world may appear to remain stable as our planet gets warmer. But at the tipping point, they will become unstable, and could permanently change, even if the surrounding climate returns to normal.
That change may be very abrupt, or gradual, but it will be irreversible. The parts of our Earth system are intricately connected. So as with Planetary Boundaries, changes in one tipping element can have knock on effects on others.
We can, and we must do all we can to avoid crossing tipping points.
The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are major tipping elements. It is expected that they will be irreversibly lost beyond 1.5॰C of warming (Note: we are now at 1.5॰C of warming).
It may take more than a century, but there will be no way to stop it. This will in turn cause sea level rise globally, and slow parts of the north-Atlantic ocean currents (another tipping element called the AMOC).
What are the major dangers?
At 1.5-2॰C, we are likely to face:
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Collapse of the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets, leading to significant sea level rises globally in the next 100 years
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The die off of tropical coral reefs around the world
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The thawing of permafrost in Russia, northern Europe and Canada resulting in large greenhouse gas emissions from decaying plant matter
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Collapse of the sea currents in the Labrador Sea near Greenland, which may destabilize the larger Atlantic current system (the AMOC) and change weather and temperature norms in north-west Europe.
What links Planetary Boundaries and Tipping Points?
The scientific insights into the increasing risk of destabilizing tipping elements has helped define our Planetary Boundary thresholds.
If we cross Planetary Boundaries we are much more likely to cross tipping points.
Some tipping elements are at risk of destabilizing from multiple human pressures that are reflected in the Planetary Boundaries Framework.
The risk of Amazon rainforest tipping relates to several boundaries:
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Climate change, Leading to more frequent and severe droughts
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Land System Change, through deforestation
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Biosphere integrity changes due to loss of animal and plant species
Other examples for the links between Planetary Boundaries and tipping points are:
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Climate Change
Most tipping elements are connected to climate change due to their significant impact on global temperatures, sea level rise, and weather patterns.
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Biosphere Integrity
Tipping elements like the Amazon rainforest, coral reefs, and boreal forests are crucial for maintaining biodiversity and ecological functions.
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Land-System Change
Deforestation and land degradation associated with tipping elements like the Amazon rainforest contribute to land-system changes.
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Ocean Acidification
Coral reefs are classified as a tipping element and are directly affected by increased CO2 levels, which lower ocean pH and impact marine life.
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Freshwater Use
Tipping elements like mountain glaciers and monsoon systems affect freshwater availability, which is critical for ecosystems and human societies.
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Drivers & Interconnections
Human activity is the central contributor to breaching the Planetary Boundaries. Our actions almost always affect the planet in many ways. We need to take a holistic view, considering a whole earth approach to the decisions that we take.
Find out more about tipping points
The most viable areas for positive transformation are in energy generation, land use and consumption of resources. All can have substantial, positive effects on maintaining our safe operating space for humanity.
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